5 min read
Disruption

What I realized early on, but also what I got wrong and a look into the future as well


Main System

Recently I read “The Internet of Money” that describes the different stages of disruption. It gave me even more confidence that I’m quite good at recognizing disruption early on and why I prefer investing into stocks compared to other investment strategies.

What I got right

Electric Vehicles

When I was 18 and got my first car, I of course dreamed about what car to get once I earn some real money. For the next ten years, especially during my university time, I was happy to be able to afford a car at all. Then I looked into cars again and purchased an Mercedes A-Class with some fancy tech. Only once I already owned that car, I did a test drive in a Tesla in 2019. That moment everything was obvious. Electric cars are the future and will replace internal combustion engine cars at some point because they are just better. Tesla is the leader because they are a product driven company. Maybe I will write about it in more detail at some point.

Another prediction: For one year I sold my car and tried public transportation again. Yes, it is cheaper but I’m “brave” enough to say that it simply is no joy and I don’t want to start and end my work day like that. I believe a lot of people think like that and that’s why individual transportation is an important part of the future.

Streaming Videos

Honestly I find it silly to argue here because there is no reason at all to watch linear TV anymore where you are watching trash at fixed times and have to endure ads. Being forced to pay for it is just crazy. But it is such an good example that disruption still takes a long time.

Gaming on mobile Phones

Not really a disruption, but I wanted to get a Nokia N-Gage so bad as a child. Of course my parents didn’t buy me one, but I was so fascinated by the idea of playing 3D games anywhere. These days, most mobile games are free and shit but there is some premium titles and of course the Nintendo Switch and Steam Deck are super popular. Maybe I rather should call this disruption “3D games on handhelds”

By the way, not getting the N-Gage taught me to earn my own money asap and always have enough savings to buy something that I really want.

What I got wrong

iPhone

When the iPhone came out, I was already a huge fan of powerful phones, so this is not about Smartphones in general. I thought the iPhone is just for people that wanted a fashion/luxury accessory. The Nokia N82 I got at the time had better specs on paper and huge app ecosystem with Symbian already. It took me a long time to admit that simplicity and UX are more important than some elite features - even for smart people.

Disruption still in progress

Bitcoin

After reading “The Bitcoin Standard” and “The Price of Tomorrow” and many conversations with a good friend of mine I’m convinced that Bitcoin will replace fiat currency at some point. It will probably take a long time but I’m in because I want to support the philosophy behind it, rather than getting rich quick.

Autonomous driving

Just look at how good Tesla FSD already is. I don’t see this hitting a ceiling and at some point it will just be better than human drivers, it doesn’t even need to be perfect.

No clue and other guesses

Hydrogen

Germany, but in my perception especially german politics and media is pushing hydrogen hard. It is such a big commitment but I still somehow think that using/storing the needed energy differently makes more sense and this is german people wanting a physical medium that comes after coal, oil and gas.

The Decline of Germany

Bureaucracy, anxiety of new technology, outdated education, no meaningful new economy companies, the goverment not changing anything but increasing taxes are just some of the reasons why I’m worried about Germany’s future and think a long termin decline is probable. I’m not personally scared because I believe every environment provides opportunities but overall I think wealth will decline. Taking job safety for granted and taking big loans are not a good idea currently.

Takeaway

The best way to recognize disruption is to try out new things early on yourself and make your own mind. Overcoming the temptation to agree what the majority of people say - even smart people - can be eyeopening.